Brexit: Parliament Suspended

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Tiassa, Aug 29, 2019.

  1. Sarkus Hippomonstrosesquippedalo phobe Valued Senior Member

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    Billions, I'd have thought, given the additional paperwork, port security and checks, transport delays etc.
    Probably.
    Well, technically we haven't yet left and so wouldn't need to re-join... we'd just cancel our wish to leave and would remain as we were.

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    Further, 48.1% of the country voted to remain, and 51.9% voted for some form of exit. If you asked the country whether they would rather stay in the EU or go through a hard Brexit, I'm pretty sure the majority would choose to remain.
    Because they think the current path (no-deal) will cost the country far more in the short, medium, and long-term, than trying to salvage a softer exit.
    When don't the opposition want the government to implode?

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    The Tories revelled in the near-implosion of the Labour party during the period Corbyn came to power. Alas it backfired when Theresa May tried to take advantage and called a general election. Lost her her reasonable majority.
    Legislation has been (or imminently will be) passed forcing the PM to ask for an extension. I can only imagine that the EU will grant it as they know there will then be a general election, resulting in either a change of government/approach that might lead to the UK remaining (2nd referendum etc) - which is the EU's preferred outcome - or the Tories staying in power and the near-certainty at that stage of a hard-brexit.
    Only if the election is after we have exited. Of course, if the EU reject the request for an extension... it's a hard-Brexit for sure.
    At the moment the Tory majority is negative 40 or so. I.e. they are currently a minority government. They remain the biggest party, and seem to be ahead in the polls, but it is no certainty that they will achieve a majority in a general election. It is quite possible that the Brexit party will take some of their votes and allow either Lib Dems or Labour to steal their seats. That could well result in a Labour/Lib-dem coalition, both of which will have campaigned to remain in the EU, and thus a 2nd referendum would be the likely outcome. That said, if the 2nd referendum ends up with LEAVE as the result... back to square one, although hopefully such a referendum will also ask about the nature of any deal people want.
    Brexit party take a share of Conservative votes (quite possible unless a deal is reached, which is also quite possible given the direction Johnson has taken the Conservatives in) it is quite possible that Labour or Lib-dems will take many more seats. More moderate floating voters would also head to the Lib Dems, so I can see them increasing their number of seats... at the expense of the Tories.
    We'll see.
    She doesn't get involved unless asked by the PM. She is a figurehead only. Her role is one of ceremony and tradition, not proactivity. She will be asked to dissolve parliament for the run-up to any general election. She can't disband the political parties. This isn't Russia.

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  3. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    i disagree

    thats the "spin" but not the truth

    and you dont get to call re-match and have another electioneering run at the swing voters
    so they will stick it to them as they should
    after all thats what democratic politics is all about and so marches the drummer boy to the calls of foul play by boris the boar.

    Tosh !
    the EU have been branded greeny idle meddlers by the UK globalists & alt-right
    and now they can sit back and watch the UK bleed its power structure to death by its own hand and simply cash in on a better deal when begging little timmy comes calling at christmas time for a lump of coal.

    this is the half time show

    EU can watch and laugh at the brits try and elect a new trunk load of sock puppets for a punch n judy show the likes if which has never been seen

    and so crumbles the mighty brittish empire
    all thanks to the tory government

    and who wins ?
    globalists ?
    dirty deeds indeed

    the last minute referees whistle of hope

    only IF the EU agree to an extension that has never been asked for?
    hands tied ?

    will the tory leader ask for an extension knowing it will lead directly to the torys losing power ?

    probably not
    let the world burn is what the majority of the toffs will be singing
     
    Last edited: Sep 6, 2019
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  5. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    one last time over the top cry the BREXIT party and 21 Torys who crossed the floor

     
    Last edited: Sep 6, 2019
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  7. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    I actually agree with the general thrust of your post, but I am not fully conversant with what is happening there.
    What I wanted to suggest is that
    If the EU did what they are definitely going to have to do and that is address the issue of mass migration, border security etc, this whole Brexit xenophobic driven demand would be more a storm in a tea cup.
    All around the globe governments are being elected on the migration issue IMO and the EU is unable to address this issue in a way that helps pro EU governments stay in power.
    For an example of the problem research Lesbos migration camps in Greece.

    Border security against uncontrolled mass migration and the fears associated would most likely see a repeat of the referendum result simply because no one in the EU is prepared to bite the bullet on this terrible and incredibly vexatious issue. The EU with the UK in it need to accept that the climate crisis is going to create a migration crisis (as if it hasn't already... eh?) and then set in place rational and humane ways of dealing with it.
    With the sort of fear that is involved do not expect citizens to act very rationally. Because they simply wont.
    No one is solidly addressing the issue properly and so Brexit is not about money or even goods and services etc. lost, it is about sovereignty and border protection gained.
    Brexit, soft or hard, is inevitable unless the EU solve their problem with the potential of mass migration and do it now. IMO
     
    Last edited: Sep 6, 2019
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  8. Beaconator Registered Senior Member

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    792
    They are going to go blind eating only two meals a day.
     
  9. Sarkus Hippomonstrosesquippedalo phobe Valued Senior Member

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    Okay, So 48.1% of the country initially wanted to remain rather than leave, and you think that pretty much everyone who voted to leave would prefer to leave with a hard Brexit than remain? Sure, the Brexit party won the most seats in the EU elections (with 30% of the vote or so) but that was also swelled by people just wanting the process of exiting to be over and done with, when there is/was no option to remain.
    It is at least what they think, whether the truth or spin. If you know the truth to be different, though, please feel free to share with them and us?
    You do know that opinions change, right? Otherwise we would have had one general election centuries ago and the same party ever since. The original referendum was a straight Remain / Leave vote, with no real idea of what Leave meant but lots of demonstrably false information spread about. It is argued that it is only right and proper and democratic that, once the details of what Leave will actually mean, the people get another vote.
    The EU are not stupid. If you could remain as you were with both parties having 100 quid in their pockets, or wait for a no-deal Brexit and create a trade deal where one side might end up with 80 quid and the other 90? Yes, the EU might have the power in those negotiations but the economics of any resultant deal simply wouldn’t be as good as they are now, for either side.
    And it is not all about the finances. The EU with the UK as a member is stronger on the global stage than the sum of the individual parts.
    Perhaps. Or it is the start of the endgame.
    The British Empire consists of the UK and a smattering of overseas territories. It crumbled long ago, to live on only in our stiff upper lip. Increasingly the next generation are seeing themselves as European, part of a multi-cultural society that has no real borders across much of Europe. If anything, the reason the Remain vote is now probably higher than before is because a Greater proportion of Leave voters are likely to have died, and the new voters are more likely to vote to Remain. In 2016, the vote of the over-65s was 60/40 to leave. In the 18-24 year old bracket it was 73/27 to remain.
    My view is the country now wants to remain, and I’m happy to hold out for that hope as long as possible.
    Not at all. The Tories currently do not have a majority. Most parties want either a softer Brexit or to Remain. The Brexit Party may well eat into the Tory vote. No, it is not the ute referees whistle of hope but a genuine possibility, especially when recent headlines in the broadsheets suggest people would favour a Corbyn government than a no-deal exit! A few months ago that would have been unheard of, and laughed off as being a wind-up.
    The PM will be legally required to ask for an extension should he not get a deal agreed. This is now (or will imminently be) a legal requirement, and political suicide should the PM not carry out his legal duty. Would Johnson do that for the sake of a place in history? Frightening though it is, he possibly might.

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    Whether the EU grant it or not, though, I’m sure they will condition it on one of two things happening: a general election or a second referendum, with the general election being the obvious one, given that most parties want one, and Labour and Lib-dems favouring only having one after (or as part of, I suppose) any agreed extension.

    With a general election, if the Tories win then it is a simple no-deal exit, and we finally get certainty. If the “Remain” parties win then more negotiations but with a softer Brexit in mind, although the backstop will/could still be an issue. But after any deal is agreed, in such a scenario, it would likely go to a second referendum, as will almost certainly be pledged by the new party (Labour and/or Lib Dems).
    If they condition a second referendum then Remain will be on the ballot, along with Leave, and I’m sure there would be a second question as to the nature of the Exit: I.e. The deal on the table or no-deal, being the only two options thus far.

    Only one of those outcomes leads to any considerable delay in a certain outcome, and that is for renegotiation after a new party comes to power following a general election.
    So, depending on outcome, we are possibly entering endgame.

    The interesting thing will be if the Tories are the largest party but don’t get an overall majority, even with DUP and Brexit Party assistance, it might be that the other parties (Labour, Lib-dem, SNP, Greens) form their own coalition with the express purpose of going for a second referendum. But if they do, I’m sure the SNP would only agree if they got IndyRef#2 out of it as part of the agreement.
    Ah, the possible intrigue.

    Time, as it so often does, will tell.
     
  10. Tiassa Let us not launch the boat ... Staff Member

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    [#borisstyle]

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    Via AP↱:

    The simmering showdown between Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Britain's Parliament over Brexit came to a head as lawmakers delivered three defeats to the government's plans for leaving the European Union, before being sent home early Tuesday for a contentious five-week suspension of the legislature.

    In a session that ran well past midnight, Parliament enacted a law to block a no-deal Brexit next month, ordered the government to release private communications about its Brexit plans and rejected Johnson's call for a snap election to break the political deadlock.

    Parliament was then suspended—or prorogued—at the government's request until Oct. 14, a drastic move that gives Johnson a respite from rebellious lawmakers as he plots his next move.

    The wreck of ... well, never mind. In slow motion. Boris style↱. Stay tuned, I suppose.
    ____________________

    Notes:

    Lawless, Jill. "Johnson suspends UK Parliament after latest Brexit defeat". Associated Press. 9 September 2019. APNews.com. 9 September 2019. http://bit.ly/2m9Zh4h
     
  11. Sarkus Hippomonstrosesquippedalo phobe Valued Senior Member

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    The prorogation is somewhat taken out of proportion in some respects: parliament had long been scheduled to close for a period of a few weeks for the Party Conference season, and "BoJo" added four days to it, I think, for purposes of a Queen's speech. So in that respect it's not all that big a deal - it's not as though our wonderfully clear-minded Parliament have shown themselves to be capable of doing anything meaningful in those four days that they wouldn't be able to achieve in the remaining time if they really wanted to.
    Anyhoo, gives our PM time to build and paint some more of his buses.

    I'm actually intrigued as to what our papers will manage to fill their columns with now that the bickering has been put on hold.
     
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  12. arfa brane call me arf Valued Senior Member

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    You can see how this is turning into a Brexit of Champignons.
     
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  13. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    3,847
    somewhere around 60% of the worlds 9 billion people live on the waters edge
    their height above water may differ to make the sea level rise crude mathematics look not soo bad,
    however...
    an extra couple of center-meters rise each year in a storm system that has sewage over flow at king tides and storms will deliver long lasting effects

    and you cant just pick a city of 10 million people up and push it up the hill a few kilometers.

    the obvious response is a massive price inflation of property at better situated heights as the swamped sewage ridden slums maintain their current pricing.

    instead of the price bottoming out as boom n bust supply n demand economics pretends...
    the landlord wont start offering the same property's at dirt cheap prices.
    this drives massive underground inflation in ways the government have always refused to manage or recognize.

    i dont have time to get further into this now

    Vs
    Racism
    Vs
    Nationalism
    Vs
    Nazi-ism

    the real problem is vastly more complex and difficult

    i dont have time to get into this right now.

    European countrys have already started building borders to prevent mass waves of illegal immigrants jumping the border.
    the danger to civilized low crime open western culture is quite real
    hundreds of years of culture & intellectual education and LGBTQ+ & womens rights are at risk.

    The main difficulty is having an educated discussion about how to respond...
    more so in the face of rising naxi-ism being seen as a valid moral position in many countrys.

    most leaders live above any type of problem the population face
    this means they are the hunger games type tyrant playing media wars.

    you can measure how seriously they take their peoples welfare by the ability of their leaders to walk about in public with no armed guards surrounding them all the time.
    where rich and low income people mingle socially ...

    many countrys cant do this because of their morals & culture & religion
     
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2019
  14. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    8,421
    Looks as if it will be whether or not Bozo - or the Privy Council on his behalf - may have lied to the Queen, and whether Parliament will be recalled. But actually I doubt the Supreme Court will uphold the finding of the Scottish Court of Session.

    Assuming they don't, the next thing will be how the party conferences turn out. Corbyn and Bozo will be on the spot, because they will have to declare what they will be proposing in their election manifestos. Corbyn may have settled that now, by saying he would negotiate a deal and then put it to a referendum, with Remain as the alternative. What he does not say is what sort of deal he would negotiate and how it would be an improvement on May's deal. He will have no idea.

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    Bozo's predicament is far worse. He seems to be a victim of geselfschaft, as they don't quite say in Germany. If he wants to stick to his rash "do or die" promise to get us out by Hallowe'en, he has to do a deal, the new law having closed off the crash-out option he originally intended to follow. But if he does a deal, Farage and the Great British Betrayal Party will put up candidates against the Tories and will probably take enough votes to ensure he loses the election. On the other hand he can't do a deal, because he's got only a month to do it, he's put no effort into it and he's antagonised the House of Commons, which would have to ratify it.

    He is also finding out that lying to everyone bites you in the arse because nobody, either at home or abroad, now trusts anything he says. You can see in his latest interviews, in the slightly shamefaced expression, that he knows the interviewer doesn't take a word of it at face value. We begin to see a hunted look in his eyes and he is starting to ricochet between unfeasible alternatives, just as Theresa May did, working out who he can sell out with the least damage.

    And then there is the sub-plot of this Baldrick or Goebbels figure, Dominic Cummings, the great war-gaming admirer of Bismarck, who has fucked up so spectacularly over the last fortnight.

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  15. Tiassa Let us not launch the boat ... Staff Member

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    [#disastercapitalism | #selfinflicted | #greed]

    The Byline Times↱ went with a team byline, this time:

    Boris Johnson's leadership campaign backers in the City stand to make billions of pounds from his 'do or die' pledge to take Britain out the of the EU by the end of October, Byline Times can reveal.

    On the day Johnson was announced as Prime Minister by his party on 23 July, it was reported that "more than half of the donations received by Boris Johnson originated from donors with ties to the City". However, this newspaper has discovered that this figure is actually much higher – and that many of the hedge funds involved are set to make a killing from his hard-line approach to Brexit.

    †​

    The current speculation on short positions – in which hedge funds make money on prices going down – is almost identical to the hedging which occurred around Brexit during the EU Referendum. Byline Times has reported previously on the vast windfalls that Vote Leave backers accrued back in 2016.

    †​

    So, how much are these firms set to make from Boris Johnson's 'do or die' approach to Brexit?

    From the financial data publicly available, Byline Times can reveal that currently £4,563,350,000 (£4.6 billion) of aggregate short positions on a 'no deal' Brexit have been taken out by hedge funds that directly or indirectly bankrolled Boris Johnson's leadership campaign ....

    .... Another £3,711,000,000 (£3.7 billion) of these short positions have been taken out by firms that donated to the Vote Leave campaign, but did not donate directly to the Johnson leadership campaign.

    Currently, £8,274,350,000 (£8.3 billion) of aggregate short positions has been taken out by hedge funds connected to the Prime Minister and his Vote Leave campaign, run by his advisor Dominic Cummings, on a 'no deal' Brexit.

    It's quite the setup for what seems an obvious question:

    Does this £8 billion bet explain why the Prime Minister has said that he would rather "die in a ditch" before asking the EU for an extension? Is it the reason why Johnson is willing to defy the Benn Act that stops a 'no deal' Brexit? Is the £8 billion any kind of motivation to prorogue Parliament?

    And that's just (ahem!) one of many.

    Y'know. So to speak.
    ____________________

    Notes:

    Byline Times Team. "Brexit Disaster Capitalism: £8 Billion Bet on No Deal Crash-Out by Boris Johnson's Leave Backers". The Byline Times. 11 September 2019. BylineTimes.com. 11 September 2019. http://bit.ly/2mdNIJn
     
  16. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    3,847
    maybe all those MP's and administration eating pies at a cost to the tax payer of around $600.00 pounds each every day (regardless if they go to work) could go and do some real charity work for a week, like help building houses for the poor, planting trees or digging community gardens or working in charity food kitchens..
    such things should be compulsory for the highest paid public servants taking 5 or 6 times the average working class wage every year for only working around 25 hours a week for their salary.
    absolutely NO church work !
    i know how they cheat doing that.
    clipping the ticket and calling it advising or "youth counseling" getting a 2 hour assembly of 500 children to watch them eat pies then calling it charity work while selling god-sex to teenagers

    youth minsters ... filthy animals
     
    Last edited: Sep 12, 2019
  17. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    8,421
    I don't buy that conspiracy theory at all. City traders make money from any change, by going long or short beforehand as appropriate. They would also make money if Article 50 were to be revoked.

    Bozo is not trying to crash us out for those reasons. The reasons are political ideology that has been well rehearsed in public by his backers on the Tory Right, for over twenty years. It is all to do with the perceived lack of "sovereignty" involved in abiding by the rules of the EU club. It is a blend of nostalgia for Empire, the (false) idea that "we won the war" and somehow deserve special treatment 80 years later because of it and, not least, a silly notion that the UK can deregulate massively if we leave and become a sort of European Singapore. This last idea completely ignores the social contract between government and people that has grown up over a couple of centuries, the nature of our welfare state, our employment law protections and a host of other things - not least our democracy, almost absent in Singapore - that make Britain quite unlike Singapore and destined to remain so.
     
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  18. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    disabled childrens' working class parent's still being sent the lunch bill from the never ending tory-party caviar tea party called BREXIT ?

    have they named a national holiday after david cameron yet ?

    another episode of on the busses

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    are they scrap booking without me ?

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    what were they thinking ? !

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    one size fits all they said !

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    complete nonsense
    i want this country properly fitted up


    ...
     
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2019 at 2:44 AM
  19. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    andy pipkin wants david cameron frosted BREXITs for three pound ninety pee but only has one pound

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  20. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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  21. LaurieAG Registered Senior Member

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    The role of the people being sovereign via a referendum vote goes well past the English empire back to ancient Greece and the foundations of democracy.
     
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  22. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    I am not talking about referenda. I am talking about the loss of sovereignty perceived by the Europhobe Right, as arising from the UK's membership of the EU. And there is a loss of sovereignty, it is true. We have to abide by the jurisdiction of the European Court ofJustice, for instance. They think this is a bad thing. Many of us think it is actually a good thing , or that it does not matter either way.
     
  23. LaurieAG Registered Senior Member

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    374
    It looks like another lesson the UK politicians are going to have to re learn is that you can't legislate against something that is totally beyond their control, like the tide.
     
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