Post covid-19 economics , fast recover or slow ?

Discussion in 'Business & Economics' started by river, Apr 7, 2020.

  1. river

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    I think slow , regardless of the Health of small businesses , Canada wide .

    Other countries I'm not sure , but I think is generally still applicable .

    People will become more restrained in their spending , because of the their need to apply to government programs for assistance , cash wise . Their awareness of an emergency fund of cash and therefore their freedom , free from money worries , is learned from this pandemic experience .
     
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  3. mathman Valued Senior Member

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    It will depend on how much effort governments are willing to make to get people employed.
     
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  5. river

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    Safely
     
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  7. wegs Matter & Pixie Dust Valued Senior Member

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    I think it will be slow, because companies (CEO's) are looking at ways to sustain output without bringing all of their employees back, to reduce overall costs. (and keep investors happy) Coupled with those millionaires buying stocks at low prices, it seems like the rich will get richer, and the middle class will shrink into lower class/poverty. I wish I could sound more optimistic, but it takes cash flow to get the economy moving again. With so many people on unemployment, where is the money coming from to stimulate growth? Trump seems to think a switch will be flipped in May? June? And everyone will be back to work, and spending their money to boost the economy.

    That's not likely to happen. Some people will get their jobs back, but many won't...times like these usually reveal to C-level execs that they didn't need all those employees to begin with, and everyone (those who are rehired back, etc. or were never laid off) will take on more work, for less money. (to ramp up again)

    And this is if COVID19 cases decline over the next two months, which time will tell.
     
  8. Xelasnave.1947 Valued Senior Member

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    I tend to take a position opposite to the general view and on this as well I guess.

    It will depend firstly how folk regain financial stability of course but folk will work and produce when they get the all clear nod.

    The reality is there is a build up of demand, from travel to new car...to a new telescope

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    If you need to move from a flat to a house because there is a baby now you will make it happen.

    There are underlying needs that drive markets...I would once say in real estate sales..in a flat market you get three enquiries and you make three sales and in a strong market you get twenty enquiries and you make three sales. I recall once..not one sale for three months in the forth month we sold four months of stock cause the demand had merely backed up and came back in a rush.

    In a strong market you get more tire kickers I find.

    And we do experience this herd thing..when one starts others will follow.

    In real estate you would see things stop due to a squeeze or some upset but the demand merely backed up...and the moment perception changed that the world would survive you would get a mini boom that established a new pricing and after things became routine again.

    Pre virus I was not even thinking about a new astronomy rig but with time on my hands started looking around to the point where I think just buy a bigger one who knows when you will die or if the world will end.

    And think of the divorces and relocations that will occur.
    Births will spike in nine months for sure...think how that will impact house and car sales.

    My prediction for Australia or at least major cities is we will see a mini boom next March if not March the following October...if not the world has changed.

    Alex
     
  9. Q-reeus Valued Senior Member

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    Agreed especially with that in red. Add in an unhealthy public acclimatization to ongoing de-facto martial law conditions, and globally societies are going precisely where globalist big-wheels want them to go. What good luck - or maybe careful planning.
     
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2020
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  10. wegs Matter & Pixie Dust Valued Senior Member

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    It's a wee bit chilling when you put it that way.
     
  11. Xelasnave.1947 Valued Senior Member

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    Warren Buffett was holding 150 billion or more to buy stock when they presented as good value.
    I do wonder if there is more to it ...look at the oil industry bankruptcies which means fire sales of asserts.
    I find a good way to guess what might be happening is to follow the money or at least look to see who benefits from a news worthy situation.
    Only time will tell...then again I expect many manipulations are never noticed by the mob and being one of the mob it is impossible to understand the motivations of mythical ,or not, folk who could manipulate nations.
    Stragley I trust them, I have to, whatever may be going on...some will point to a world government perhaps that will work out ok ...
    In any event for me one day at a time what will happen will happen, particularly if somehow this event or the management of it has been planned.
    Alex
     
  12. Q-reeus Valued Senior Member

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    That the super rich and their agents have long planned for a one-world oligarchy/technocracy 'benign' dictatorship is an open secret:
    https://buddylogan.com/rockefeller-warburg.html
    See especially quote of James Warburg's address before US Congress 1950, and David Rockerfeller's 'thank you' address at CFR meeting 1991

    As to whether covid-19 was deliberately engineered to help propel that nightmare scenario, or simply a happenstance occurrence (as the official line says) taken advantage of for the same end-game goal, I certainly can't say for sure. But here's someone with impeccable qualifications who has no doubt covid-19 is a bio-weapon:
    https://www.siasat.com/covid-19-biowarfare-says-bioweapon-creator-dr-francis-boyle-1866058/
    Howls of 'conspiracy theorist' is the natural reaction expected from the usual suspects here - but I don't give a shit what such cowardly and/or dull-minded hacks think or say.
    Make up your own mind - in the light of above material linked to.
     
  13. river

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    To your first statement agreed .

    Look at the History of banks involvement in World War One and World War Two . Many would be shocked to find that banks financially , supported both sides . At enormous profits made . Books have been written about this .

    If Covid-19 is bio-weapon , then it back fired .

    Besides it isn't .

    The virus SARS is very similar , but the difference is that covid-19 is much more contagious . And moves faster .
     
    Last edited: Apr 12, 2020
  14. Q-reeus Valued Senior Member

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    Once again - there are many sources out there claiming variously that COVID-19 was an inadvertent occurrence or a secretly developed and dispersed bioweapon. The overwhelming MSM narrative is for the former. A couple of contra pov vids you might like to at least ponder:


    The first raises interesting points as to which nations initially copped it so severely. A bit dated in that US is now the number 1 seat of reported infections.
    The second is prescient and shows how Oligarchs have indeed long commissioned modeling of such pandemic scenarios as 'fortunate' enablers to accelerate and maintain global control.
     
  15. Q-reeus Valued Senior Member

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    Alerted recently to an interesting article. While it's clearly anti-China in tone, evidence for a Wuhan P4 lab genetically engineered (weaponized) COVID-19 now seems pretty good:

    That it also plays nicely into the 'Western' Oligarchs designs for a global police state is a win-win for the few, lose-lose for nearly everyone else.
     
  16. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    It's of course very likely that the Chinese government is hiding the source and history of this virus - all authoritarian regimes lie by reflex, and the Chinese regime has a lot to lie about.

    It has also been remarkably casual - careless, even - in its handling of genetic engineering in other areas - agriculture, in particular. This is one of the fields in which China has been converting its corporate organization to capitalism - another set of motives for secrecy, another reason to favor speed over due diligence, another motive for hiding screwups: money. And China has very little experience regulating capitalist corporations - they face a steep learning curve (lead based paint on children's toys probably caught them by surprise).

    Whoever is in charge of this stuff in China has consistently behaved in ways that indicate a serious underestimation of the risks involved in genetic engineering, the accidents possible, the level of ignorance we (all of science) are operating at. If this obliviousness extends to bioweapons research, as seems likely, the setup was and is a disaster waiting to happen.

    But the step from that to deliberate, intentional, release is pretty long - and completely unnecessary.

    So:
    So the geniuses in Wuhan engineered a bioweapon that preferentially targets cancer patients, the obese, the asthmatic, and old folks in nursing homes, is largely asymptomatic in military forces and the gainfully employed, and needed specialized pangolin genetics to polish its efficiency all the way to 5% in its target population of elderly diabetic chemotherapy recipients.

    No wonder the US military is falling behind - we have a pangolin gap.
    The winners so far - the six countries that have had the most success in stepping on the virus - have female heads of State. Part of China's nefarious plan to emasculate China's enemies, or part of the Western globalists's nefarious plot to emasculate governments in general?
     
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  17. Q-reeus Valued Senior Member

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    Just maybe if you viewed all that article rather than skimmed, the evidence for genetic engineering with obvious intent for use as a bioweapon might not have escaped notice.
    I never claimed COVID-19 was deliberately released. On the other hand if the Chinese regime gambled on the virus spreading quickly to it's competitors territories to create massive economic damage which China could and looks set to actually recover far faster, the loss of even a few million of their own citizens would probably be judged acceptable. Initial heavy casualties at home ostensibly provided all the cover they needed to plead 'innocent accident'.
    That would be only a tiny fraction of the carnage under Mao's cultural revolution.
    Again - I'm not saying that's for sure how it has gone down, but it's a real possibility. Foolish to discount out of hand.
     
  18. wegs Matter & Pixie Dust Valued Senior Member

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    Read recently that Trump would like to look into privatizing the US Postal system. About time. I think Jeff Bezos should take it over. Sorta serious. All I know, if whenever I order items online and the preferred shipper is USPS, there are endlesssss delays. (pre-Cv19) With Amazon, some delays due to CV19 (reasonable), but not weeks on end. Is it that Amazon is superior when it comes to logisitcs, or is it because they use UPS as their preferred shipper? Probably both.

    The USPS has been in financial trouble for a long time, and they just keep trudging along. It's not a matter of throwing more money at it, its a matter of restructuring it completely. When it was originally created, it had nowhere near the volume of deliveries that it does now. We shop differently, and Amazon has changed that, for good or bad...that paradigm is here to stay, and the USPS simply can't compete.

    Have you tried to track a package through their site? Omg, I have a package literally ''stuck'' in ''pre-transit'' for weeks. Meanwhile, Amazon orders have been ariving on time or early. Maybe it's magic, they have fairies working behind the scenes?

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    If they can do it, the USPS can do it, but what is their incentive if they can lose packages, deliver mail to the wrong addresses, etc. with no reprocussions? I mailed a friend a gift card a few months back, and she never received it. The problem is if you don't pay extra for tracking, and just put something in the mail, it can get stolen, ''lost,'' etc and there's nothing you can do. Amazon would be out of business if it operated remotely like the USPS.
     
    Last edited: Apr 16, 2020
  19. Q-reeus Valued Senior Member

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    Off-topic wegs.
     
  20. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    Another way of looking at this is that for businesses to recover they need investment. That is what people are doing when they buy shares in a company. If we have buyers again, that is a sign of some returning business confidence and appetite for investment, which is what we need.

    Mind you, I think some sectors will not recover for a very long time, if ever. The airline industry may be permanently reduced in size (hooray!). Travel and hotels likewise.
    And possibly oil. IT would seem to benefit and also home entertainment. And I'd definitely buy shares in makes of face masks, I think!

    Also, although not strictly a business issue directly, I read with interest about the surge in home cooking. I wonder in fact if the diet in the Anglophone countries, which seem to be the ones with the greatest degree of dietary collapse, will be improved by this crisis, as people get used to cooking for themselves again and find they quite like it.
     
  21. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    The video contains language implying that certain individuals are responsible for the "release" of the plague.
    That is not really neutral language.
    An accidental escape from one of their slipshod labs would be par for the course, and that seems as likely as anything else.

    As far as causing massive economic damage to their competitors, enough to make up for the loss of access and favor and global privileges they would incur (almost no one who can help it is going to grant the Chinese monopoly control over critical manufactures for a long time) I doubt anyone except an alert American lefty would have predicted the kind of damage America was vulnerable to - the standard take on bioweapons has long been that America - ocean isolated and lightly populated and medically sophisticated and wealthy enough to do almost anything - is the least vulnerable country on the planet, and would come out much better than, say, China, in any bioweapon war.

    If the Chinese actually predicted the performance of the Republican governance in this country, solidly enough to justify launching a plague from well inside their own territory, one has to tip one's hat.
     
  22. parmalee peripatetic artisan Valued Senior Member

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    I'm sceptical about this. I read the other day that, in the U.S., many thousands of tons of produce are being destroyed because, with restaurants being largely shuttered, Americans apparently won't eat vegetables of their own volition. My experience with you lot--in the UK, not you specifically, of course--is that your dietary habits are very similar to our own, so...
     
  23. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    You may be right about the veggies. And yes I'm afraid the Anglophone countries have some unfortunate common dietary heritage. But at least when people cook their own stuff they can't so easily load it up with salt, sugar, high fructose corn syrup, trans fats and all the other shit that industrially prepared food contains for the convenience of the manufacturer. In the UK it was interesting what disappeared off the supermarket shelves apart from toilet paper: pasta, rice, tinned tomatoes, tinned fish and vegetables, cooking oil, eggs and flour. The flour millers say domestic consumption has doubled. If that's what people are eating, they are not doing too badly.
     

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