Putin's invasion of Ukraine

Discussion in 'World Events' started by Saint, Jan 20, 2022.

  1. foghorn Valued Senior Member

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    Why are young russian men rushing to the russian borders to get out of Russia before 'enlistment ' starts?
    The Russian people don't seem to want Putin's war.
     
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  3. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    Because an estimated 70-80 thousand Russian troops have been killed or wounded and Russia is losing a lot of the territory it initially invaded. However it is doubtful that these new recruits will make a difference for many months. So Russia is likely to lose more ground.
     
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  5. James R Just this guy, you know? Staff Member

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    It's a desperate attempt by Putin to save face. Also callous and misguided. He is sending many of his own people to die needlessly in his feeble attempt to create what he thinks will be a legacy for himself.

    The best thing for all concerned would be for those close to Putin to come to their senses and realise this is madness. Russia needs a competent President, not another tin-pot dictator.
     
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  7. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    My guess...
    Once Putin declares the disputed region as annexed via a sham referendum to Russia, he will consolidate his hold with those 300,000 conscripts and clearly declare any attack will be an attack on Russia.... and will be met with nuclear options. Typical cold war stuff all over again...and there is not a lot any nation can do about it...

    Ukraine must retake all regions before Russia can claim annexation and that is highly unlikely...
     
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2022
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  8. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    The referenda are taking place today. But no one will take them seriously. Russia may declare these areas annexed, but no one will accept that. Nobody is going to tell Ukraine to stop winning them back, or stop providing training and weapons to help them.

    So then what? Russia's bluff will have been called. Are they really going to start WW3, based on these sham referenda in bits of Ukraine?
     
  9. pjdude1219 The biscuit has risen Valued Senior Member

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    its likely just sabre rattling. i doubt putin would use nukes no matter what. that would more than likely cost what few allies he actually has.
     
  10. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    and the same could be said of the West. Crimea was annexed with little more than a whimper.
    What Putin needs to seriously consider though, is that his greatest threat is more likely from well armed and organized non-state actors. In other words Moscow is a sitting duck...
    The nuclear deterrent only works against national (sovereign) identities not non-state aligned fighters.
    The other thing to consider is that just because Ukraine was publicly disarmed of Nukes doesn't mean they haven't kept a few under the table so to speak.
     
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2022
  11. Sarkus Hippomonstrosesquippedalo phobe Valued Senior Member

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    There was no fighting, QQ. Ukraine gave it up without a fight, and never asked the West to provide military support. Spot the difference with what is going on now.
    Which "non-state actors" are you suggesting? Do you have an example?
    For which they have the deterrant of the rest of the country's military and security forces.

    Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

    More fear-mongering and sensationalism, I see, QQ. If you have any evidence to support the theory so that it should be at least considered seriously then do feel free to provide. Otherwise, do you not think it is reasonable to assume that all nukes were removed, by Russia, after they signed the PNT agreement in 1994. They were, after all, Russia's nukes. Do you think Russia would have invaded recently if they weren't sure that all their nukes had been removed. Even if it had left some in after they said the last was removed back in 1996, would you invade a territory that you thought could even possibly use your own nukes against you?
     
  12. CptBork Valued Senior Member

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    Here's hoping Putin drafts every last Russian who ever supported this nonsense and sends them straight to the front to die like the cowardly little neanderthals they are.
     
  13. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    Nope! With so much corruption, so much paranoia, anything was possible.... and keeping a few out of sight would be dead easy to do...
    Given the nature of the beast, and all that corruption, do you think it is reasonable to believe that Russia and pro-Russia Ukraine (at the time) would have played with a full deck?
     
  14. Seattle Valued Senior Member

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    While possible, keeping a few nukes out of sight isn't likely to be an easy thing to do. It's not like keeping a few bottles of whiskey in a barn.
     
  15. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    true...
     
  16. James R Just this guy, you know? Staff Member

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    Unfortunately, that is not what is happening. Instead, those who are being drafted consist mostly of less wealthy Russians from disadvantages villages and similar areas who have no interest in Putin's war, along with anybody who dares to speak out against Putin or his war.

    In other words, it seems Putin has given the order that his political opponents should be sent off to the front ASAP.
     
  17. Sarkus Hippomonstrosesquippedalo phobe Valued Senior Member

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    No, it really wouldn't be. Nuclear weapons need periodic repairs, replacement of parts, etc, which Ukraine would not have. They would have to ask other countries for the parts, which would raise flags for any half-decent foreign surveillance organisation. It's not like locking them up in a shack somewhere and throwing away the key until you want to wheel them out.
    Seriously, it's just another case of your penchant for the sensational, the conspiracy theory, etc.
    On the matter of nuclear weapons, and the focus it had from the international community, yes, I do think they would have, and did, play with a full deck on the matter.
    Do you have any evidence to the contrary?
    Do you think Russia would have invaded Ukraine if they knew that Ukraine were still effectively a nuclear power, even if only owing to Russia's non-removal of their own nukes back in the 90s? You yourself have stated that nuclear deterrents only work against state players, and now you're suggesting they don't even work for that?
     
  18. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    Don't be silly. The nukes were installed when both Ukraine and Russia were part of the USSR. Russia would know exactly what was on Ukraine territory and where.
     
  19. el es Registered Senior Member

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  20. CptBork Valued Senior Member

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    Well it's a good thing Ukraine welcomes soldiers who surrender voluntarily and even offers citizenship to some of them. Maybe after surrendering they can receive real training from Ukraine to help overthrow Putin. For those in Russia who want this war though, they all deserve to spend a few months at the front and should be grateful for the opportunity.
     
  21. Saint Valued Senior Member

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    Can Putin stop the war and concede defeat?
     
  22. Sarkus Hippomonstrosesquippedalo phobe Valued Senior Member

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    Can he? Technically, yes, he can. He just needs to order the troops to withdraw from Ukraine - at least to their pre-Feb 2022 positions - and call a ceasefire.

    Will he? Almost certainly not. He's too invested in it, politically, personally, and probably just as importantly for him: from his legacy point of view as well.
     
  23. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    We're heading into a particularly dangerous phase now. Putin is losing - badly - and his sham referendum will serve to further back him into a corner. When it comes back showing that 96% of Ukranians believe that they are Russians and are begging for Putin to protect them, he will lose the option to say "well, the people there are crazy Nazis so we're just going to leave them to their insanity."

    So where does he go from here? He can throw all those new conscripts onto the field. But just as his attempts to use prisoners showed, those conscripts are going to see a lot of benefits in surrendering and spending the rest of the war somewhere safe. And he can no longer adequately arm them.

    He can fly missions to reduce Ukrainian cities to rubble. But he's tried that already. Didn't change the course of the war.

    That leaves tactical NBC weapons. And while most of his nuclear weapons are no doubt junk by this point, he has over 1000 - so the odds are that one will work. And that will escalate VERY quickly. The Ukrainains have the ability to hit points within Russia but have not done so because they just want the war over. That will change once nukes get used.

    And chemical or biological weapons will cause such a global stink that the repercussions of that might well be worse than anything that is happening right now inside Russia.
     

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