The Etp Model Has Been Empirically Confirmed

Discussion in 'The Cesspool' started by Futilitist, Aug 24, 2015.

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  1. Futilitist This so called forum is a fraud... Registered Senior Member

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    If we leave all the tight oil in the ground, we will be short about 3 million barrels a day. That degree of shortfall would cause a massive price spike. But consumers couldn't possibly afford that. If consumers could actually afford super high priced oil, why aren't they doing it now?

    How, exactly, can the current price of oil double or triple and still be affordable to oil consumers?

    And if the oil price cannot rise that much, how will we ever get the tight oil out of the ground?



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  3. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    Exactly. This would drive more pumping.
    Because people will pay as little as they can for any product - gasoline, food, cars etc. It's how market economies work.
    Simple. Oil prices have been triple what the current prices are; people could still afford gasoline.
     
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  5. Futilitist This so called forum is a fraud... Registered Senior Member

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    That is not true, billvon. Your statement contradicts the second law of thermodynamics and, therefore, is false.

    And your Wall Street Journal story is a hoped for projection of rising demand. But the oil price just keeps dropping anyway, so that future demand growth has apparently not materialized yet.



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  7. origin Heading towards oblivion Valued Senior Member

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    Do you really think reality is going to influence him. Futilitist has built an impenetrable wall of incompetence around himself that repels all reason and logic.
    However it is kind of funny to just point out his glaring fundamental errors.
     
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  8. origin Heading towards oblivion Valued Senior Member

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    Really? I took thermodynamics and I do not recall ever seeing that the second law of thermodynamics states entropy increases cost. Maybe you have to have taken LSD before class to get that understanding.
     
  9. krash661 [MK6] transitioning scifi to reality Valued Senior Member

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    is your account blown out yet ?
    it appears you should stay away from predicting markets and trades, along with other suchs that pertian.. i bet you watch cnbc and cnn all day, correct ?
    are you even a series 3 ?
    but in order to play with commodities and currencies and such, you should be series 7.
     
  10. Futilitist This so called forum is a fraud... Registered Senior Member

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    And how would we pay for that extra pumping?

    This market economy is not working. If people keep getting away with paying less than the cost of production, the oil industry will eventually go bankrupt.

    Wrong. Not so simple. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. And people could not afford those high prices for very long in the past. And the cost of production hasn't stopped rising (entropy never sleeps). So people would actually have to be able to afford even higher prices than they have just recently proven they couldn't sustain.



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  11. krash661 [MK6] transitioning scifi to reality Valued Senior Member

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    you're also completely clueless as too upstream and downstream.
    it's also possible that you're clueless to exploration, drillers, and refiners, or one company existing as all.
     
  12. krash661 [MK6] transitioning scifi to reality Valued Senior Member

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    you're also completely clueless as too the economics that oil industry produces.
    the biggest oil company[exxon] controls humanity.along with other major corporates.
     
  13. Futilitist This so called forum is a fraud... Registered Senior Member

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    The concept is simple enough that no LSD is required at all. You should have taken physics for economists or economics for physicists. If you had, you would have learned that all processes produce entropy and entropy increases the energetic cost of production. From the moment an oil well begins pumping, entropy is increasing. As entropy increases, it takes more and more energy to pump the oil out of the ground, and that costs more and more money. Eventually, production can no longer rise no matter how much money you spend. Production then peaks and begins to decline.



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  14. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    The Second Law of Thermodynamics states that in any cyclic process, entropy will remain the same or (more likely) increase. Since fossil fuels represent an open, not a closed, process, then there is no prohibition against reducing costs.
    Read it again. Oil demand has been growing AND is projected to keep growing. From the article - "Demand for oil is increasing at its fastest pace in five years." Once again - you're wrong.
    Consumers.
    Some have - just as some coal companies have gone bankrupt, some airlines have gone bankrupt and some solar producers have gone bankrupt. However the industry as a whole is doing quite well.
    They could afford them for years. Those high prices reduced demand (people bought more efficient cars, car makers built more efficient cars) thus reducing people's expenses based on the higher fuel costs. Again, a market in action.
    Entropy is not cost. The cost of production is, in fact, dropping as we learn to do a better job drilling for tight oil. That's a fact. I find hewing to facts is a better choice than deliberate ignorance.
     
  15. Futilitist This so called forum is a fraud... Registered Senior Member

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    I don't play the markets and I don't have a TV.



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  16. krash661 [MK6] transitioning scifi to reality Valued Senior Member

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    ahh, so not only do you not have experience, but you're completely clueless too any of this. i see.

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    shrugs.
    so now it has been established that we should not pay any attention to your words/thoughts ??
     
  17. krash661 [MK6] transitioning scifi to reality Valued Senior Member

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    you're completely clueless too any of this.
    please just stop your shenanigans. it's that simple.
     
  18. Futilitist This so called forum is a fraud... Registered Senior Member

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    I didn't say that trying to reduce costs was prohibited. I said that entropy is increasing costs faster than cost cutting is reducing them. If cost cutting could really eliminate entropy, that would violate the second law of thermodynamics.

    If oil demand is increasing so fast, why is the price dropping?

    Consumers cannot currently afford to pay the full cost of oil production. They will have to be much richer to afford oil at 150 dollars per barrel. How will they get richer, and when do you expect it to happen?

    Ha ha. The oil industry as a whole is not doing quite well. For the industry to do quite well, the full cost of oil production, including investment in future oil production, must be met. That is obviously not happening currently.

    Consumers were unable to sustain oil prices over 100 dollars. And you didn't answer the part about the production costs continuing to rise, leading to even higher prices than have been temporarily afforded in the past.

    Entropy must be overcome in order to produce oil. That takes energy. Energy costs money. Entropy is always rising, so, therefore, costs are always rising.

    Efficiency gains are not sufficient to eliminate entropy. That would violate the second law of thermodynamics and result in a perpetual oil production machine.

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  19. Futilitist This so called forum is a fraud... Registered Senior Member

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    So, in order to be listened to by you, I would have to have investment experience? I thought this was a science forum, not an investment forum.



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  20. krash661 [MK6] transitioning scifi to reality Valued Senior Member

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    when you continually use the word entropy, you are referring to the second definition, correct ?
    which is:
    physics measure of unavailable energy: a measure of the energy in a system or process that is unavailable to do work.
    In a reversible thermodynamic process, entropy is expressed as the heat absorbed or emitted divided by the absolute temperature.
    Symbol S

    or do you mean a measure of disorder. please clarify. but all in all, you're just digging yourself deeper and deeper with your obvious lack of any knowledge, let alone experience within this subject.
     
  21. krash661 [MK6] transitioning scifi to reality Valued Senior Member

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    yes exactly. i do not take in account of anyone whom is inexperianced, let alone uneducated.
    yes, yes... it's that simple.
    it's also as simple as, if you were correct, why do you not have a investing and/or trading account ?
    why not make the money from your so-called correct assessment ?
    then again, why are you talking about economics/investing/ trading, when in fact you're completely clueless as to the fact of what you're spewing.
    i have read all of your post. i'm amused how you attempt to connect this with physics. tho you maybe correct to some extent, but you're not qualified to spew any further. let alone comprehending all of what you spew.

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    shrugs.
     
  22. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    This is in fact untrue; costs are being reduced.
    Cost cutting does not eliminate entropy. It just reduces cost.
    Because supply is increasing faster. Again, read the article; it is explained.
    Nonsense. They currently are paying it.
    By that measure, no industry is doing well, since no industry can account for all future costs. So by your definition, the oil industry is at least doing as well as any other industry.
    That's a silly statement. A consumer is just as easy to sustain an oil cost of 100 dollars with a vehicle that gets 50mpg as he is with an oil cost of 50 dollars with a vehicle that gets 25mpg with no other change in his behavior.
    Production costs are dropping. From the Houston Chronicle:
    =====
    Costs are dropping in the Eagle Ford, producer says
    Posted on May 8, 20

    When Houston’s Swift Energy Co. reported first-quarter results Thursday, it offered a glimpse at the level of cost-cutting oil and gas companies are making in the Eagle Ford Shale.

    “We are seeing cost concessions in some cases greater than we originally budgeted,” said Terry Swift, president and CEO, said in a call with analysts.

    Swift’s average drilling cost this year is $2.6 million per well, down from $3.2 million last year. And its most recent Eagle Ford well was drilled for $2.2 million.

    Its lease operating costs dropped 16 percent from the previous quarter.
    ====
    Reality disagrees. Entropy does not equal cost.
    So you believe that if a car manufacturer reduces a car's drag by a slight amount through changes in areodynamics - he is violating the laws of thermodynamics? It is fortunate that most designers do not have that misconception.
     
  23. Futilitist This so called forum is a fraud... Registered Senior Member

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    Wow. This is major progress. I am glad you took the time to try to understand what I am saying. Thanks.



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