Will UK brexit on 29 March 2019?

Discussion in 'World Events' started by Saint, Mar 23, 2019.

  1. Sarkus Hippomonstrosesquippedalo phobe Valued Senior Member

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    Brexit actually has had the opposite effect.... Sterling devalued somewhat, so the stock market actually has performed pretty well (as the UK stocks were that much cheaper) not withstanding the global 10% correction in the past year.
    You'd have to be a shrewd investor to spot which companies would suffer from Brexit amongst that. Not impossible, though.
     
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  3. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    Over coffee this morn, my beloved spouse told me that a musical group traveled to play at various brexit rallies.
    OK
    Do they call themselves the brexiteers? or the brexitears?
    .........................
    I have come to the conclusion that (at least here in the USA) it is most likely that the incessant partisan bickering is done as entertainment/"smoke and mirrors" for the purpose of distracting the electorate: While our millionaires congress goes about the business of enriching their millionaire cronies.
    .........................
    On a personal note:
    At a recent family dinner, I had the distinct impression that I was surrounded by yellow dog democrats.
     
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2019
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  5. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    Republican.
    Bothsides is bs.
     
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  7. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    spoken like a rabid yellow dog democrat
    do you wear one of those yellow dog pins/buttons/badges?
    got a bumper sticker?
     
  8. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    which will completely cut the pants off the moral authority of the UK parliamentary system.

    standing there bare bums to the europeans to spank as they see fit.

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    i wonder how many tory voters have conveniently forgotten the tory party created the referendum as an ego parade for voter posturing.
    salt in the wound so much the voters have forgotten what the wound was caused by ?
     
  9. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    On the contrary, if the UK ends up with a soft Brexit it will be a vindication of the parliamentary system, viz. the ability of parliament to control the excesses of an ideologically driven executive. I take Sarkus's point about being rule takers in such a scenario, but the rules in question are rules any medium-sized country wanting to trade with the EU would have to accept in any case.

    Any exporter has to ensure his goods and services comply with the regulations of the country he exports to, whether it be the USA, the EU, China, Australia etc. Since about 50% of UK trade is with the EU, it is blindingly obvious that any UK products and services which might be exported will have to meet EU standards before they even think about any other countries. So what is the point of leaving the system, just to employ a load of extra local bureaucrats to reinstate British Standards etc, when we already have EU ones? So that's the Single Market.

    When it comes to the Customs Union, who can really argue with a straight face that the UK, with a market size of 60m people, can strike better deals with the USA, China, Japan, India etc than the EU, which can offer access to a market of 400m? How is Germany inhibited from being "global" by being in the EU? Doesn't seem to hold them back much, does it?
     
  10. Yazata Valued Senior Member

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    Some pretty dramatic poll results are out from YouGov today concerning UK voter intentions in the upcoming European parliamentary elections.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politic...4/17/brexit-party-leading-eu-parliament-polls

    Only days after the party officially launched in Coventry, Nigel Farage's new Brexit party seems to have jumped into the lead. The most obvious place that these voters are coming from is the declining UKIP party.

    But both the Conservatives and Labour are bleeding voters as well, though that had already happened before these polls were conducted. The winners are a whole collection of small insurgent parties. Apparently the majority of voters who voted Conservative in the last UK general election are bailing from the Conservatives in this European election, overwhelmingly headed to the Brexit Party. Labour is losing similar numbers of voters as well since 2017, but these seem to be heading in roughly equal numbers to the Greens, Liberal Democrats and Brexit. The new Change UK party doesn't seem to be moving the needle very much.

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.n...qicng3bz/PeoplesVote_190416_EUElections_w.pdf

    My spectator's view from way over here in California suggests that bad leadership in both of Britain's major parties, the weak and feckless Theresa May (seemingly the toy of the Whitehall elites) and the crypto-commie Jeremy Corbyn (Britain's own Hugo Chavez), might be killing Britain's longtime two party system. Whether that's a good thing is hard to say. But it's certainly going to be a spectacle and an occasion for getting out the popcorn.

    Of course these are European elections, for MEPs. These elections have historically been occasions for protest votes all over Europe, occasions for voters to display their dissatisfaction. How much it translates into voter intention in any upcoming UK general election is unclear.

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    Last edited: Apr 17, 2019 at 5:26 PM
  11. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    Yes. This is not very surprising, since Les Faragistes are a single-issue party, formed for the express purpose of hoovering up all the Leave votes going in this zombie EU election, whereas all other parties have a stance on a range of domestic policy issues, as one needs to have in order to govern, something Farage's party does not aspire to do.

    There is a likelihood that this EU parliament election will be gamed, in the UK, to be a bogus "referendum" on the progress of Brexit so far. That's Farage's plan certainly. He can profit from the fact that pro-EU votes will be divided among several parties, while he offers a simple, reality-free option for any Leaver.

    So I agree with your caveat. I think there is a risk of overinterpreting the significance of charts like these. (The abscissa is only 4 days long!) They tell us little about what would happen in a general election.
     
  12. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    is that a new reality TV series ?
     
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  13. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    ... lol !
     
  14. Sarkus Hippomonstrosesquippedalo phobe Valued Senior Member

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    Soap opera, more like. Reality can't be this comical.
     

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